Bretton Woods II Under Stress

Madrid, Spain

April 17-18, 2008

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Overview

This conference hosted with the bank of Spain focused on The Bretton Woods II hypothesis. Dooley, Folkerts-Landau and Garber (2003) established a parallelism between the current state of affairs in the international monetary system and the Bretton Woods system of the 1950s. According to this hypothesis, a new ‘periphery’ formed primarily by East Asian Nations is pursuing an export-led development strategy by means of fixed and undervalued exchange rates. Partly because the financial markets in these countries are underdeveloped, and partly in order to perpetuate the system, the ‘periphery’ recycles its growing stock of foreign exchange reserves in the ‘center’, thereby financing the US current account deficit at a low cost. This creates a symbiotic relation between the ‘center’ and the ‘periphery’, which, according to the proponents of the Bretton Woods II hypothesis, does explain the emergence and persistence of global imbalances. Participants discussed how recent developments in key US and European credit markets, together with the ongoing depreciation of the US$ could undermine some of the foundations of the Bretton Woods II hypothesis, with crucial implications for the global monetary system. In the optic of the Bretton Woods II hypothesis, the question raised by participants was if the system was moving from a ‘stable disequilibrium’ to an ‘unstable equilibrium’?

Agenda

Speakers

  • Alexey ULYUKAEV: First Deputy Chairman, Bank of Russia
  • Amer BISAT: Partner, Traxis Investment
  • Andrew ROZANOV: Head of Sovereign Advisory, State Street Global Markets
  • Angel GURRIA: Secretary General, OECD
  • Angel UBIDE: Managing Director, Tudor Investment
  • Arnab DAS: Global Head of Emerging Markets Research, Dresdner Kleinwort Benson
  • Daniel GROS: Director, Centre for European Policy Studies
  • David VEGARA: Secretary of State for Economic Affairs, Ministry of Economy and Finance, Spain
  • Gian Maria MILESI FERRETII: Division Chief, Research Department, IMF
  • Guillermo DE LA DEHESA: Chairman, CEPR
  • Jaime CARUANA: Director, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, IMF
  • Javier SANTISO: Director of the Development Centre, OECD
  • Jose Dario URIBE: Governor, Central Bank of Colombia
  • Jose VINALS: Deputy Governor, Bank of Spain
  • Klas EKLUND: Global Chief Economist, SEB
  • Marc UZAN: Executive Director, Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee
  • Marten ROSS: Deputy Governor, Bank of Estonia
  • Miguel FERNANDEZ ORDONEZ: Governor, Bank of Spain
  • Miranda GOELTOM: Deputy Governor, Bank of Indonesia
  • Ousmene MANDENG: Head Public Sector Investment Advisory, Ashmore Group
  • Peter GARBER: Global Strategist, Deutsche Bank
  • Pilar L’HOTELLERIE FALLOIS: Associate Director General International Affairs, Bank of Spain

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